Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

145.23 – 95.09

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

53 – 71

Prediction missed · off by 58.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 312.9 ±12.8

1165Team Paradise

Season APEX 57Event APEX 41.11Rank 53Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3245Ravens

Season APEX 194Event APEX 49.29Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9059COLTech Robotics

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 54.83Rank 29Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 251.7 ±17.7

8717Cyber Vipers

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 27.54Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

6479AZTECH Robotics

Season APEX 110.2Event APEX 39.95Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10380The Dragon Hunters

Provisional

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 27.6Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1165, 3245, 9059

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.2 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 1165, 3245, 9059

Auto

20.5 17%

Teleop

63.3 52%

Endgame

38.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8717, 6479, 10380

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.1 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8717, 6479, 10380

Auto

9.6 13%

Teleop

31.7 43%

Endgame

32.1 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score145.2pts

Blue projected score95.1pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 50.1
Score range: 79–161
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 124 vs event baseline 88.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

312.9Season APEX251.7

20.5Auto9.6

63.3Teleop31.7

38.9Endgame32.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	21
teleop	0	44
endgame	20	6
foul	15	0
total	53	71

Result

Final score

53 – 71

Prediction missed · off by 58.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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