Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

48.09 – 37.23

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

79 – 99

Prediction missed · off by 46.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 365 ±13.5

3243Amperes

Season APEX 219.5Event APEX 22.93Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11100Team Epsilon

Season APEX 68.2Event APEX 8.44Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

4731MONARCH-E

Season APEX 77.3Event APEX 16.72Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 238.2 ±17.7

7425Green Valley Robotics

Season APEX 119.9Event APEX 4.12Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3009High Scalers

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 22.93Rank 55Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2840PCDS Blue Tide

Provisional

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 10.18Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3243, 11100, 4731

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3243, 11100, 4731

Auto

16.2 37%

Teleop

23.8 54%

Endgame

4.1 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7425, 3009, 2840

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.2 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7425, 3009, 2840

Auto

11.9 31%

Teleop

20.4 53%

Endgame

5.9 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score48.1pts

Blue projected score37.2pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.9
Score range: 21–64
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 178 vs event baseline 88.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

365Season APEX238.2

16.2Auto11.9

23.8Teleop20.4

4.1Endgame5.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	0
teleop	54	50
endgame	18	49
foul	0	0
total	79	99

Result

Final score

79 – 99

Prediction missed · off by 46.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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