Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

98.89 – 79.34

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

124 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 17.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 338.3 ±18.7

698Hamilton Microbots

Provisional

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 24.53Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

987HIGHROLLERS

Season APEX 204.2Event APEX 52.14Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11479Formosa Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 69.4Event APEX 22.22Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 328.7 ±16.9

10980The Deadbolts

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 39.57Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1828BoxerBots

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 17.55Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

9777Knights of the Lab Table

Provisional

Season APEX 49.6Event APEX 22.22Rank 45Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 698, 987, 11479

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 698, 987, 11479

Auto

18.9 19%

Teleop

52.8 53%

Endgame

27.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10980, 1828, 9777

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10980, 1828, 9777

Auto

7.3 9%

Teleop

43.7 54%

Endgame

30.0 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score98.9pts

Blue projected score79.3pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.5
Score range: 63–115
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 214 vs event baseline 87.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

338.3Season APEX328.7

18.9Auto7.3

52.8Teleop43.7

27.3Endgame30

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	16
teleop	75	29
endgame	14	40
foul	5	5
total	124	90

Result

Final score

124 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 17.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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