Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

66.85 – 70.9

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

108 – 84

Prediction missed · off by 27.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 263.9 ±15.6

10114Phantom Talons

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 16.28Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9501Sidereal Envoy

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 26.86Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1212Sentinels

Provisional

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 23.71Rank 22Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 213.3 ±18.8

2662RoboKrew

Provisional

Season APEX 45.1Event APEX -3.38Rank 54Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7333Ghost

Season APEX 63.4Event APEX 23.71Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1410The Kraken

Season APEX 104.8Event APEX 50.57Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10114, 9501, 1212

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10114, 9501, 1212

Auto

12.2 18%

Teleop

39.8 59%

Endgame

15.6 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2662, 7333, 1410

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2662, 7333, 1410

Auto

17.2 26%

Teleop

38.0 56%

Endgame

12.1 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score66.9pts

Blue projected score70.9pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.1
Score range: 51–87
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 192 vs event baseline 87.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

263.9Season APEX213.3

12.2Auto17.2

39.8Teleop38

15.6Endgame12.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	26
teleop	61	45
endgame	26	13
foul	0	0
total	108	84

Result

Final score

108 – 84

Prediction missed · off by 27.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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