Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

145.92 – 89.17

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

16 – 76

Prediction missed · off by 71.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 178.3 ±20

10506Crash Test Dummies

Provisional

Season APEX 47.5Event APEX 77.54Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10183ARC

Season APEX 89.7Event APEX 77.34Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8012APEX Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 41.1Event APEX -8.96Rank 48Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 416.7 ±15.1

7426PAIR OF DICE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 285Event APEX 77.54Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2080Torbotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 9.43Rank 36Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

3019Firebirds

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 2.2Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10506, 10183, 8012

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.9 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10506, 10183, 8012

Auto

35.1 25%

Teleop

68.2 48%

Endgame

38.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7426, 2080, 3019

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.2 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7426, 2080, 3019

Auto

22.3 26%

Teleop

37.3 43%

Endgame

26.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score145.9pts

Blue projected score89.2pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 56.7
Score range: 73–162
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 92 vs event baseline 90.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

178.3Season APEX416.7

35.1Auto22.3

68.2Teleop37.3

38.7Endgame26.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	35
teleop	1	31
endgame	11	10
foul	0	0
total	16	76

Result

Final score

16 – 76

Prediction missed · off by 71.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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