Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

56.03 – 117.42

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

55 – 22

Prediction missed · off by 48.2 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 256.1 ±16.3

5933JudgeMent Call Robotics

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 26.57Rank 19Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

7425Green Valley Robotics

Season APEX 119.9Event APEX -Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2478Westwood Robotics

Season APEX 76.3Event APEX 13.71Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 252 ±17.2

9059COLTech Robotics

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 67.14Rank 29Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

6833Python Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 13.71Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3424Corax

Season APEX 119.3Event APEX 36.57Rank 42Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5933, 7425, 2478

/ 100 compat

Projected

56 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5933, 7425, 2478

Auto

10.7 21%

Teleop

24.4 49%

Endgame

15.2 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9059, 6833, 3424

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9059, 6833, 3424

Auto

28.3 27%

Teleop

44.9 43%

Endgame

31.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score56pts

Blue projected score117.4pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61.4
Score range: 39–134
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 77 vs event baseline 94.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

256.1Season APEX252

6Auto28.3

16.6Teleop44.9

12Endgame31.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	12
teleop	21	9
endgame	28	1
foul	0	0
total	55	22

Result

Final score

55 – 22

Prediction missed · off by 48.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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