Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

77.33 – 112.54

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

93 – 53

Prediction missed · off by 37.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 207.2 ±17.7

6479AZTECH Robotics

Season APEX 110.2Event APEX 57.3Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5933JudgeMent Call Robotics

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 12.57Rank 19Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9091A.W.E.

Provisional

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 7.46Rank 40Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 358.5 ±15.5

2840PCDS Blue Tide

Provisional

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 29.87Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2403Plasma Robotics

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 42.85Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10114Phantom Talons

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 39.82Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6479, 5933, 9091

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6479, 5933, 9091

Auto

12.6 17%

Teleop

38.9 52%

Endgame

23.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2840, 2403, 10114

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2840, 2403, 10114

Auto

21.9 20%

Teleop

63.8 58%

Endgame

24.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score77.3pts

Blue projected score112.5pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample196alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.2
Score range: 56–134
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 146 vs event baseline 116.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

207.2Season APEX358.5

12.6Auto21.9

38.9Teleop63.8

23.6Endgame24.3

55Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	17
teleop	51	32
endgame	35	4
foul	0	0
total	93	53

Result

Final score

93 – 53

Prediction missed · off by 37.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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