Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

54.82 – 53.31

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

33 – 74

Prediction missed · off by 21.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 111.7 ±14.1

6524Wilder Wolves FRC

Season APEX -Event APEX 2.49Rank 23Record 3-7-1Status -Confidence -

4788Can't Control

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 31.82Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9191My Chemical Robots

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 20.51Rank 12Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

9980Off-Season Demo Team 9980

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 23.3Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9977Off-Season Demo Team 9977

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 10.21Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9995Off-Season Demo Team 9995

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 19.8Rank 13Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6524, 4788, 9191

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.8 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6524, 4788, 9191

Auto

8.3 16%

Teleop

26.3 52%

Endgame

16.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9980, 9977, 9995

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.3 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9980, 9977, 9995

Auto

16.9 35%

Teleop

22.2 46%

Endgame

8.9 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score54.8pts

Blue projected score53.3pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.5
Score range: 41–67
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 107 vs event baseline 66.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

111.7Season APEX0

8.3Auto16.9

26.3Teleop22.2

16.2Endgame8.9

0Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	26
teleop	22	33
endgame	2	15
foul	0	0
total	33	74

Result

Final score

33 – 74

Prediction missed · off by 21.3 pts