Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

101.73 – 60.86

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

66 – 69

Prediction missed · off by 21.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 30 ±41.5

6509Southern River

Season APEX -Event APEX 52.75Rank 3Record 9-1-1Status -Confidence -

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 11.61Rank 21Record 4-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7113Control Rising

Season APEX 30Event APEX 37.37Rank 10Record 6-4-1Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 49.6 ±41.8

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 1.34Rank 26Record 2-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4537RoboRoos

Season APEX -Event APEX 23.77Rank 5Record 7-4-0Status -Confidence -

10342Lost in Translation

Provisional

Season APEX 49.6Event APEX 35.75Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6509, 9992, 7113

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.7 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6509, 9992, 7113

Auto

23.6 25%

Teleop

58.0 61%

Endgame

12.9 14%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9990, 4537, 10342

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.9 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9990, 4537, 10342

Auto

14.4 23%

Teleop

38.9 63%

Endgame

8.2 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score101.7pts

Blue projected score60.9pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.9
Score range: 49–114
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 135 vs event baseline 66.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

30Season APEX49.6

23.6Auto14.4

58Teleop38.9

12.9Endgame8.2

12Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	23
teleop	24	37
endgame	20	9
foul	5	0
total	66	69

Result

Final score

66 – 69

Prediction missed · off by 21.9 pts