Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

185.39 – 60.11

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

305 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 72.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 60.8 ±57.4

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 79.41Rank 1Record 10-0-1Status preseasonConfidence 0

9987Off-Season Demo Team 9987

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -1.69Rank 24Record 3-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4788Can't Control

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 107.67Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 111.7 ±14.1

6524Wilder Wolves FRC

Season APEX -Event APEX 3.93Rank 23Record 3-7-1Status -Confidence -

4788Can't Control

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 33.67Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9191My Chemical Robots

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 22.51Rank 12Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9991, 9987, 4788

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.4 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9991, 9987, 4788

Auto

29.5 16%

Teleop

106.5 59%

Endgame

44.2 25%

Strengths

· 4788 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6524, 4788, 9191

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.1 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6524, 4788, 9191

Auto

8.8 16%

Teleop

31.2 56%

Endgame

15.3 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.41 · Blue 0.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score185.4pts

Blue projected score60.1pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 125.3
Score range: 48–197
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 340 vs event baseline 64.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

60.8Season APEX111.7

29.5Auto8.8

106.5Teleop31.2

44.2Endgame15.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	7
teleop	231	8
endgame	27	20
foul	0	0
total	305	35

Result

Final score

305 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 72.4 pts