Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

34.25 – 21.73

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

90 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 39 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±56.6

9985Off-Season Demo Team 9985

Season APEX -Event APEX 20.74Rank 16Record 4-7-0Status -Confidence -

9996Off-Season Demo Team 9996

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 14.6Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9973Off-Season Demo Team 9973

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -1.09Rank 15Record 5-5-1Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 35.5 ±12

9433Lil' Timmy's Big Team

Provisional

Season APEX 35.5Event APEX 8.3Rank 11Record 6-4-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

10316The Western Blue Tongues

Season APEX -Event APEX 2.78Rank 25Record 3-8-0Status -Confidence -

8876Lynwood Tech Tips

Season APEX -Event APEX 10.65Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status -Confidence -

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9985, 9996, 9973

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.2 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9985, 9996, 9973

Auto

10.2 31%

Teleop

15.2 46%

Endgame

7.7 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9433, 10316, 8876

/ 100 compat

Projected

21.7 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9433, 10316, 8876

Auto

6.6 27%

Teleop

13.2 53%

Endgame

5.0 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score34.2pts

Blue projected score21.7pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.5
Score range: 10–46
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 134 vs event baseline 64.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX35.5

10.2Auto6.6

15.2Teleop13.2

7.7Endgame5

32Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	4
teleop	43	23
endgame	20	17
foul	15	0
total	90	44

Result

Final score

90 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 39 pts