Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

54.66 – 53.68

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

97 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 21.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 49.6 ±41.8

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 0.16Rank 26Record 2-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4537RoboRoos

Season APEX -Event APEX 21.67Rank 5Record 7-4-0Status -Confidence -

10342Lost in Translation

Provisional

Season APEX 49.6Event APEX 32.83Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

9980Off-Season Demo Team 9980

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 23.16Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9977Off-Season Demo Team 9977

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 10.37Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9995Off-Season Demo Team 9995

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 20.15Rank 13Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9990, 4537, 10342

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.7 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9990, 4537, 10342

Auto

13.2 24%

Teleop

33.4 60%

Endgame

9.4 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9980, 9977, 9995

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.7 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9980, 9977, 9995

Auto

16.3 36%

Teleop

22.4 49%

Endgame

6.7 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score54.7pts

Blue projected score53.7pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1
Score range: 42–67
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 150 vs event baseline 64.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

49.6Season APEX0

13.2Auto16.3

33.4Teleop22.4

9.4Endgame6.7

0Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	18
teleop	71	23
endgame	6	12
foul	0	0
total	97	53

Result

Final score

97 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 21.5 pts