Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

100.72 – 33.96

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

116 – 21

Prediction correct · off by 14.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 30 ±41.5

6509Southern River

Season APEX -Event APEX 52.68Rank 3Record 9-1-1Status -Confidence -

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 10.51Rank 21Record 4-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7113Control Rising

Season APEX 30Event APEX 37.53Rank 10Record 6-4-1Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±56.6

9979Off-Season Demo Team 9979

Season APEX -Event APEX 13.61Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status -Confidence -

9983Off-Season Demo Team 9983

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 14.64Rank 14Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9998Off-Season Demo Team 9998

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 5.71Rank 19Record 4-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6509, 9992, 7113

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.7 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6509, 9992, 7113

Auto

21.5 23%

Teleop

57.2 62%

Endgame

13.1 14%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9979, 9983, 9998

/ 100 compat

Projected

34 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9979, 9983, 9998

Auto

9.5 30%

Teleop

12.4 39%

Endgame

9.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.75 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score100.7pts

Blue projected score34pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 66.8
Score range: 22–113
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 137 vs event baseline 64.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

30Season APEX0

21.5Auto9.5

57.2Teleop12.4

13.1Endgame9.8

26Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	13
teleop	71	8
endgame	12	0
foul	0	0
total	116	21

Result

Final score

116 – 21

Prediction correct · off by 14.1 pts