Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

199.68 – 27.73

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

142 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 44.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 60.8 ±57.4

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 84.21Rank 1Record 10-0-1Status preseasonConfidence 0

9987Off-Season Demo Team 9987

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 2.66Rank 24Record 3-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4788Can't Control

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 112.81Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±56.6

9985Off-Season Demo Team 9985

Season APEX -Event APEX 18.49Rank 16Record 4-7-0Status -Confidence -

9996Off-Season Demo Team 9996

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 12.63Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9973Off-Season Demo Team 9973

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -3.39Rank 15Record 5-5-1Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9991, 9987, 4788

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.7 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9991, 9987, 4788

Auto

34.7 18%

Teleop

115.0 59%

Endgame

45.8 23%

Strengths

· 4788 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9985, 9996, 9973

/ 100 compat

Projected

27.7 pts

~0.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9985, 9996, 9973

Auto

9.9 38%

Teleop

12.2 47%

Endgame

4.1 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.55 · Blue 0.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score199.7pts

Blue projected score27.7pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 172
Score range: 16–212
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 201 vs event baseline 64.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

60.8Season APEX0

34.7Auto9.9

115Teleop12.2

45.8Endgame4.1

7Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	11
teleop	82	28
endgame	39	20
foul	10	0
total	142	59

Result

Final score

142 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 44.5 pts