Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

63.19 – 58.23

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

62 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 10 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 49.6 ±41.8

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 2.38Rank 26Record 2-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4537RoboRoos

Season APEX -Event APEX 24.65Rank 5Record 7-4-0Status -Confidence -

10342Lost in Translation

Provisional

Season APEX 49.6Event APEX 36.16Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

9980Off-Season Demo Team 9980

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 24.96Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9977Off-Season Demo Team 9977

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 11.51Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9995Off-Season Demo Team 9995

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 21.76Rank 13Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9990, 4537, 10342

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.2 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9990, 4537, 10342

Auto

16.0 25%

Teleop

37.7 59%

Endgame

9.9 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9980, 9977, 9995

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.2 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9980, 9977, 9995

Auto

18.9 35%

Teleop

26.0 48%

Endgame

9.4 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score63.2pts

Blue projected score58.2pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5
Score range: 46–75
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 139 vs event baseline 67.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

49.6Season APEX0

16Auto18.9

37.7Teleop26

9.9Endgame9.4

0Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	22
teleop	33	39
endgame	12	16
foul	0	0
total	62	77

Result

Final score

62 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 10 pts