Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

54.97 – 55.96

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

73 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 18.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±56.6

9985Off-Season Demo Team 9985

Season APEX -Event APEX 27.92Rank 16Record 4-7-0Status -Confidence -

9996Off-Season Demo Team 9996

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 21.61Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9973Off-Season Demo Team 9973

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 5.44Rank 15Record 5-5-1Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

9980Off-Season Demo Team 9980

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 24.24Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9977Off-Season Demo Team 9977

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 10.79Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9995Off-Season Demo Team 9995

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 20.93Rank 13Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9985, 9996, 9973

/ 100 compat

Projected

55 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9985, 9996, 9973

Auto

10.8 23%

Teleop

23.1 49%

Endgame

13.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9980, 9977, 9995

/ 100 compat

Projected

56 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9980, 9977, 9995

Auto

18.1 35%

Teleop

23.8 46%

Endgame

9.6 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score55pts

Blue projected score56pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1
Score range: 43–68
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 148 vs event baseline 67.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

10.8Auto18.1

23.1Teleop23.8

13.6Endgame9.6

8Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	25
teleop	28	42
endgame	27	8
foul	0	0
total	73	75

Result

Final score

73 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 18.5 pts