Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

205.17 – 61.41

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

137 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 38.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 60.8 ±57.4

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 85.77Rank 1Record 10-0-1Status preseasonConfidence 0

9987Off-Season Demo Team 9987

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 5.29Rank 24Record 3-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4788Can't Control

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 114.11Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 49.6 ±41.8

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 1.45Rank 26Record 2-9-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4537RoboRoos

Season APEX -Event APEX 24.02Rank 5Record 7-4-0Status -Confidence -

10342Lost in Translation

Provisional

Season APEX 49.6Event APEX 35.94Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9991, 9987, 4788

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.2 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9991, 9987, 4788

Auto

32.3 16%

Teleop

127.7 64%

Endgame

40.9 20%

Strengths

· 4788 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9990, 4537, 10342

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.4 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9990, 4537, 10342

Auto

15.9 26%

Teleop

38.4 62%

Endgame

7.8 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.47 · Blue 0.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score205.2pts

Blue projected score61.4pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 143.8
Score range: 49–217
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 207 vs event baseline 67.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

60.8Season APEX49.6

32.3Auto15.9

127.7Teleop38.4

40.9Endgame7.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	18
teleop	94	33
endgame	6	19
foul	0	0
total	137	70

Result

Final score

137 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 38.4 pts