Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

95.7 – 41.78

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

105 – 131

Prediction missed · off by 49.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 30 ±41.5

6509Southern River

Season APEX -Event APEX 50.76Rank 3Record 9-1-1Status -Confidence -

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 9.56Rank 21Record 4-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

7113Control Rising

Season APEX 30Event APEX 35.38Rank 10Record 6-4-1Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±56.6

9985Off-Season Demo Team 9985

Season APEX -Event APEX 23.31Rank 16Record 4-7-0Status -Confidence -

9996Off-Season Demo Team 9996

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 17.27Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9973Off-Season Demo Team 9973

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 1.2Rank 15Record 5-5-1Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6509, 9992, 7113

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.7 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6509, 9992, 7113

Auto

22.3 25%

Teleop

52.3 59%

Endgame

14.2 16%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9985, 9996, 9973

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.8 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9985, 9996, 9973

Auto

10.1 27%

Teleop

18.3 48%

Endgame

9.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.68 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score95.7pts

Blue projected score41.8pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53.9
Score range: 30–108
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 236 vs event baseline 66.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

30Season APEX0

22.3Auto10.1

52.3Teleop18.3

14.2Endgame9.7

15Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	15
teleop	61	50
endgame	25	36
foul	0	30
total	105	131

Result

Final score

105 – 131

Prediction missed · off by 49.3 pts