Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

32.07 – 13.91

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

13 – 42

Prediction missed · off by 23.6 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±0

9985Off-Season Demo Team 9985

Season APEX -Event APEX -1.68Rank -Record -Status -Confidence -

9989Off-Season Demo Team 9989

Season APEX -Event APEX 9.9Rank -Record -Status -Confidence -

8876Lynwood Tech Tips

Season APEX -Event APEX 23.85Rank -Record -Status -Confidence -

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±56.6

6509Southern River

Season APEX -Event APEX 9.9Rank -Record -Status -Confidence -

9987Off-Season Demo Team 9987

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -0.49Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

9995Off-Season Demo Team 9995

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 4.5Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9985, 9989, 8876

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.1 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9985, 9989, 8876

Auto

3.5 11%

Teleop

16.3 51%

Endgame

11.9 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6509, 9987, 9995

/ 100 compat

Projected

13.9 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6509, 9987, 9995

Auto

-0.1 0%

Teleop

6.5 49%

Endgame

7.0 52%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score32.1pts

Blue projected score13.9pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample70alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18.2
Score range: 7–39
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 55 vs event baseline 38.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

3.5Auto-0.1

16.3Teleop6.5

11.9Endgame7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	13
teleop	3	19
endgame	0	10
foul	0	0
total	13	42

Result

Final score

13 – 42

Prediction missed · off by 23.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable