Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

18.43 – 33.73

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

67 – 11

Prediction missed · off by 35.7 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 30 ±41.5

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 9.19Rank -Record -Status -Confidence -

7113Control Rising

Season APEX 30Event APEX 5.65Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 76

9980Off-Season Demo Team 9980

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 3.59Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 35.5 ±41.8

9433Lil' Timmy's Big Team

Provisional

Season APEX 35.5Event APEX 9.06Rank -Record -Status provisionalConfidence 73

10316The Western Blue Tongues

Season APEX -Event APEX 1.73Rank -Record -Status -Confidence -

9998Off-Season Demo Team 9998

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 22.94Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · NaN, 7113, 9980

/ 100 compat

Projected

18.4 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, 7113, 9980

Auto

4.6 25%

Teleop

10.3 56%

Endgame

3.4 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9433, 10316, 9998

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.7 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9433, 10316, 9998

Auto

4.4 14%

Teleop

16.9 53%

Endgame

10.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score18.4pts

Blue projected score33.7pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample70alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 12%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.3
Score range: 11–41
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 78 vs event baseline 38.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

30Season APEX35.5

4.6Auto4.4

10.3Teleop16.9

3.4Endgame10.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	5
teleop	42	6
endgame	7	0
foul	0	0
total	67	11

Result

Final score

67 – 11

Prediction missed · off by 35.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable