Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

53.04 – 39.28

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

83 – 21

Prediction correct · off by 24.1 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±56.6

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 26.59Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

9977Off-Season Demo Team 9977

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 15.88Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

4537RoboRoos

Season APEX -Event APEX 10.57Rank -Record -Status -Confidence -

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 60.8 ±57.4

4788Can't Control

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 21.45Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 79

9996Off-Season Demo Team 9996

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 10.57Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

9973Off-Season Demo Team 9973

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 7.26Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9991, 9977, 4537

/ 100 compat

Projected

53 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9991, 9977, 4537

Auto

5.2 10%

Teleop

31.3 59%

Endgame

16.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4788, 9996, 9973

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.3 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4788, 9996, 9973

Auto

8.2 22%

Teleop

18.7 50%

Endgame

10.8 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score53pts

Blue projected score39.3pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample70alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.8
Score range: 32–60
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 104 vs event baseline 36.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX60.8

5.2Auto8.2

31.3Teleop18.7

16.4Endgame10.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	7
teleop	54	7
endgame	12	7
foul	0	0
total	83	21

Result

Final score

83 – 21

Prediction correct · off by 24.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable