Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

100.31 – 117.55

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

70 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 29.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 60.8 ±57.4

9998Off-Season Demo Team 9998

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 4.27Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

4788Can't Control

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 93.37Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 79

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 2.67Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 50.9 ±41.2

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 84.62Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

9191My Chemical Robots

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 17.36Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 79

8876Lynwood Tech Tips

Season APEX -Event APEX 15.57Rank -Record -Status -Confidence -

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9998, 4788, 9992

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.3 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9998, 4788, 9992

Auto

26.2 27%

Teleop

51.8 53%

Endgame

20.3 21%

Strengths

· 4788 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9991, 9191, 8876

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.6 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9991, 9191, 8876

Auto

18.3 16%

Teleop

65.6 58%

Endgame

28.5 25%

Strengths

· 9991 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score100.3pts

Blue projected score117.6pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample70alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.2
Score range: 89–129
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 158 vs event baseline 59.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

60.8Season APEX50.9

26.2Auto18.3

51.8Teleop65.6

20.3Endgame28.5

26Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	10
teleop	33	52
endgame	17	26
foul	5	0
total	70	88

Result

Final score

70 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 29.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable