Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

47.14 – 47.98

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

85 – 67

Prediction missed · off by 28.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±40

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -3.03Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

9985Off-Season Demo Team 9985

Season APEX -Event APEX 12.18Rank -Record -Status -Confidence -

6509Southern River

Season APEX -Event APEX 37.99Rank -Record -Status -Confidence -

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 30 ±57.6

9983Off-Season Demo Team 9983

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 10.85Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

7113Control Rising

Season APEX 30Event APEX 37.28Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 76

9996Off-Season Demo Team 9996

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -0.15Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9992, 9985, 6509

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.1 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9992, 9985, 6509

Auto

12.6 26%

Teleop

27.5 56%

Endgame

9.2 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9983, 7113, 9996

/ 100 compat

Projected

48 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9983, 7113, 9996

Auto

11.5 30%

Teleop

24.6 65%

Endgame

1.9 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score47.1pts

Blue projected score48pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 6%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.8
Score range: 37–58
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 152 vs event baseline 56.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX30

12.6Auto11.5

27.5Teleop24.6

9.2Endgame1.9

36Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	15
teleop	43	39
endgame	25	13
foul	0	0
total	85	67

Result

Final score

85 – 67

Prediction missed · off by 28.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable