Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

47.09 – 65.28

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

37 – 29

Prediction missed · off by 23.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 35.5 ±41.8

9433Lil' Timmy's Big Team

Provisional

Season APEX 35.5Event APEX 16.44Rank -Record -Status provisionalConfidence 73

4537RoboRoos

Season APEX -Event APEX 18.38Rank -Record -Status -Confidence -

9996Off-Season Demo Team 9996

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 12.27Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±40

6509Southern River

Season APEX -Event APEX 48.54Rank -Record -Status -Confidence -

9983Off-Season Demo Team 9983

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 8.58Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

9989Off-Season Demo Team 9989

Season APEX -Event APEX 8.16Rank -Record -Status -Confidence -

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9433, 4537, 9996

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.1 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9433, 4537, 9996

Auto

8.5 20%

Teleop

24.0 58%

Endgame

9.2 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6509, 9983, 9989

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.3 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6509, 9983, 9989

Auto

15.5 24%

Teleop

29.2 46%

Endgame

18.7 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.07 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score47.1pts

Blue projected score65.3pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample70alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 14%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.2
Score range: 36–76
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 66 vs event baseline 59.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

35.5Season APEX0

8.5Auto15.5

24Teleop29.2

9.2Endgame18.7

43Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	2
teleop	21	12
endgame	10	15
foul	0	0
total	37	29

Result

Final score

37 – 29

Prediction missed · off by 23.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable