Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

51.33 – 71.84

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

17 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 54.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 50.9 ±10

10316The Western Blue Tongues

Season APEX -Event APEX 0.31Rank -Record -Status -Confidence -

9191My Chemical Robots

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 29.47Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 79

9989Off-Season Demo Team 9989

Season APEX -Event APEX 21.55Rank -Record -Status -Confidence -

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±40

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 63.14Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 18.72Rank -Record -Status -Confidence -

6524Wilder Wolves FRC

Season APEX -Event APEX -10.02Rank -Record -Status -Confidence -

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10316, 9191, 9989

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.3 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10316, 9191, 9989

Auto

9.3 28%

Teleop

14.4 43%

Endgame

10.0 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9991, NaN, 6524

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.8 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9991, NaN, 6524

Auto

16.8 20%

Teleop

45.3 54%

Endgame

21.1 25%

Strengths

· 9991 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.05 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score51.3pts

Blue projected score71.8pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample62alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 14%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.5
Score range: 41–82
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 163 vs event baseline 54.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

50.9Season APEX0

9.3Auto16.8

14.4Teleop45.3

10Endgame21.1

21Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	22
teleop	11	87
endgame	2	37
foul	0	0
total	17	146

Result

Final score

17 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 54.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable