Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

76.25 – 19.76

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

225 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 81 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 60.8 ±57.4

9978Off-Season Demo Team 9978

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -11.31Rank 12Record 3-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 37.6Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4788Can't Control

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 49.96Rank 4Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 35.5 ±57.8

9433Lil' Timmy's Big Team

Provisional

Season APEX 35.5Event APEX -5.35Rank 11Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -1.14Rank 27Record 1-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9983Off-Season Demo Team 9983

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 26.25Rank 17Record 3-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9978, 9991, 4788

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.3 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9978, 9991, 4788

Auto

11.3 15%

Teleop

44.8 58%

Endgame

21.8 28%

Strengths

· 4788 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9433, 9990, 9983

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.8 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9433, 9990, 9983

Auto

7.6 31%

Teleop

8.9 37%

Endgame

7.7 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.88 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score76.3pts

Blue projected score19.8pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample70alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 10%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 56.5
Score range: 12–84
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 258 vs event baseline 45.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

60.8Season APEX35.5

11.3Auto7.6

44.8Teleop8.9

21.8Endgame7.7

17Consistency174

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	15
teleop	125	14
endgame	52	4
foul	0	0
total	225	33

Result

Final score

225 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 81 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable