Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

52.15 – 41.49

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

23 – 68

Prediction missed · off by 27.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 86.4 ±42.9

9433Lil' Timmy's Big Team

Provisional

Season APEX 35.5Event APEX 1.62Rank -Record -Status provisionalConfidence 73

9191My Chemical Robots

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 20.97Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 79

9977Off-Season Demo Team 9977

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 29.56Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 30 ±11

7113Control Rising

Season APEX 30Event APEX 18.15Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 76

9979Off-Season Demo Team 9979

Season APEX -Event APEX 11.29Rank -Record -Status -Confidence -

4537RoboRoos

Season APEX -Event APEX 12.05Rank -Record -Status -Confidence -

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9433, 9191, 9977

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.2 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9433, 9191, 9977

Auto

13.0 22%

Teleop

31.7 53%

Endgame

15.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7113, 9979, 4537

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.5 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7113, 9979, 4537

Auto

7.9 21%

Teleop

26.4 71%

Endgame

2.7 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score52.2pts

Blue projected score41.5pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample70alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 14%, blue 14%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.7
Score range: 33–60
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 91 vs event baseline 46.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

86.4Season APEX30

13Auto7.9

31.7Teleop26.4

15.3Endgame2.7

44Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	13
teleop	9	42
endgame	6	13
foul	0	0
total	23	68

Result

Final score

23 – 68

Prediction missed · off by 27.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable