Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

52.7 – 0

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

63 – 15

Prediction correct · off by 12.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±56.6

6509Southern River

Season APEX -Event APEX 28.11Rank -Record -Status -Confidence -

9996Off-Season Demo Team 9996

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 10.94Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

9998Off-Season Demo Team 9998

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 13.65Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

9984Off-Season Demo Team 9984

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -19.14Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -6.65Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 2.75Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6509, 9996, 9998

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.7 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6509, 9996, 9998

Auto

7.9 22%

Teleop

20.1 55%

Endgame

8.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9984, 9990, 9992

/ 100 compat

Projected

-23 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9984, 9990, 9992

Auto

-0.6 3%

Teleop

-15.4 69%

Endgame

-6.3 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.68 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score52.7pts

Blue projected score-23pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample70alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52.7
Score range: -8–61
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 78 vs event baseline 45.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX0

7.9Auto-0.6

20.1Teleop-15.4

8.4Endgame-6.3

25Consistency127

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	11
teleop	41	2
endgame	0	2
foul	0	0
total	63	15

Result

Final score

63 – 15

Prediction correct · off by 12.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable