Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

13.88 – 54

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

40 – 30

Prediction missed · off by 25.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 35.5 ±41.8

9433Lil' Timmy's Big Team

Provisional

Season APEX 35.5Event APEX -5.73Rank -Record -Status provisionalConfidence 73

9979Off-Season Demo Team 9979

Season APEX -Event APEX 14.7Rank -Record -Status -Confidence -

9983Off-Season Demo Team 9983

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 4.91Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±40

8876Lynwood Tech Tips

Season APEX -Event APEX 16.09Rank -Record -Status -Confidence -

4537RoboRoos

Season APEX -Event APEX 16.41Rank -Record -Status -Confidence -

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 21.5Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9433, 9979, 9983

/ 100 compat

Projected

13.9 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9433, 9979, 9983

Auto

-3.9 0%

Teleop

7.6 49%

Endgame

11.9 76%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8876, 4537, 9992

/ 100 compat

Projected

54 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8876, 4537, 9992

Auto

11.6 18%

Teleop

34.4 54%

Endgame

17.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.89 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score13.9pts

Blue projected score54pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample70alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 10%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -40.1
Score range: 7–61
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 70 vs event baseline 41.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

35.5Season APEX0

-3.9Auto11.6

7.6Teleop34.4

11.9Endgame17.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	11
teleop	21	17
endgame	11	2
foul	0	0
total	40	30

Result

Final score

40 – 30

Prediction missed · off by 25.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable