Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

33.01 – 18.13

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

114 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 47.4 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 49.6 ±57.8

10342Lost in Translation

Provisional

Season APEX 49.6Event APEX 22.38Rank 3Record 6-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9996Off-Season Demo Team 9996

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 5.14Rank 10Record 5-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9995Off-Season Demo Team 9995

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 5.49Rank 15Record 3-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 60.8 ±57.4

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -0.26Rank 27Record 1-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9987Off-Season Demo Team 9987

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 0.05Rank 24Record 2-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4788Can't Control

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 18.34Rank 4Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10342, 9996, 9995

/ 100 compat

Projected

33 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10342, 9996, 9995

Auto

4.3 13%

Teleop

16.2 48%

Endgame

13.2 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9990, 9987, 4788

/ 100 compat

Projected

18.1 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9990, 9987, 4788

Auto

5.3 33%

Teleop

6.3 39%

Endgame

4.6 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score33pts

Blue projected score18.1pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample70alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.9
Score range: 11–40
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 146 vs event baseline 38.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

49.6Season APEX60.8

4.3Auto5.3

16.2Teleop6.3

13.2Endgame4.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	12
teleop	37	20
endgame	0	0
foul	60	0
total	114	32

Result

Final score

114 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 47.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable