Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

29.99 – 25.56

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

70 – 11

Prediction correct · off by 27.3 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 30 ±11

7113Control Rising

Season APEX 30Event APEX 18.57Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 76

10316The Western Blue Tongues

Season APEX -Event APEX -8.93Rank -Record -Status -Confidence -

6509Southern River

Season APEX -Event APEX 20.35Rank -Record -Status -Confidence -

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±56.6

9978Off-Season Demo Team 9978

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 5.13Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

6524Wilder Wolves FRC

Season APEX -Event APEX 2.69Rank -Record -Status -Confidence -

9998Off-Season Demo Team 9998

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 17.74Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7113, 10316, 6509

/ 100 compat

Projected

30 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7113, 10316, 6509

Auto

4.7 15%

Teleop

19.1 61%

Endgame

7.3 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9978, 6524, 9998

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.6 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9978, 6524, 9998

Auto

6.5 27%

Teleop

13.5 55%

Endgame

4.4 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score30pts

Blue projected score25.6pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample70alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.4
Score range: 19–37
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 81 vs event baseline 37.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

30Season APEX0

4.7Auto6.5

19.1Teleop13.5

7.3Endgame4.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	9
teleop	46	2
endgame	3	0
foul	0	0
total	70	11

Result

Final score

70 – 11

Prediction correct · off by 27.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable