Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

52.5 – 56.85

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

56 – 25

Prediction missed · off by 17.7 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

9973Off-Season Demo Team 9973

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -0.7Rank 22Record 2-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 36.04Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9980Off-Season Demo Team 9980

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 17.16Rank 5Record 6-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 50.9 ±41.2

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 25Rank 6Record 5-2-0Status -Confidence -

9984Off-Season Demo Team 9984

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 11.8Rank 23Record 2-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9191My Chemical Robots

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 20.05Rank 13Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9973, 9991, 9980

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.5 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9973, 9991, 9980

Auto

11.9 22%

Teleop

32.2 61%

Endgame

9.1 17%

Strengths

· 9991 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · NaN, 9984, 9191

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.9 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, 9984, 9191

Auto

9.2 16%

Teleop

31.4 55%

Endgame

16.5 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score52.5pts

Blue projected score56.9pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample70alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.4
Score range: 46–64
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 81 vs event baseline 37.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX50.9

11.9Auto9.2

32.2Teleop31.4

9.1Endgame16.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	12
teleop	32	7
endgame	6	1
foul	0	5
total	56	25

Result

Final score

56 – 25

Prediction missed · off by 17.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable