Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

165.57 – 233.34

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

186 – 175

Prediction missed · off by 39.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 477.8 ±16.2

3132Thunder Down Under

Season APEX 132.5Event APEX 131.88Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9191My Chemical Robots

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 17.87Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4613Barker Redbacks

A+

Season APEX 294.4Event APEX 15.82Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 356.2 ±16.7

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 106.86Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9147The Joebots

Season APEX 32.1Event APEX 13.46Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

7433Iona Fusion

Season APEX 116Event APEX 113.02Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3132, 9191, 4613

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.6 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3132, 9191, 4613

Auto

19.4 12%

Teleop

104.0 63%

Endgame

41.3 25%

Strengths

· 3132 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6497, 9147, 7433

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6497, 9147, 7433

Auto

56.2 25%

Teleop

124.9 56%

Endgame

42.3 19%

Strengths

· 7433 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.05 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score165.6pts

Blue projected score233.3pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -67.8
Score range: 146–253
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 361 vs event baseline 110.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

477.8Season APEX356.2

19.4Auto56.2

104Teleop124.9

41.3Endgame42.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	54
teleop	83	59
endgame	35	47
foul	15	15
total	186	175

Result

Final score

186 – 175

Prediction missed · off by 39.4 pts

Match videos

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