Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
315.09 – 166.49
86%14%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
254 – 204
Prediction correct · off by 49.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 545.7 ±15.8
Season APEX 322.1Event APEX 94.62Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 190.3Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 80
Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 30.17Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 302.2 ±17.5
Season APEX 26.3Event APEX 17.99Rank 39Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77
Season APEX 195.3Event APEX 93.98Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95
Season APEX 80.6Event APEX 54.52Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8613, 5584, 10552
81
/ 100 compatProjected
315.1 pts
~2.1 RP (regional)
Teams: 8613, 5584, 10552
Auto
58.0 19%
Teleop
173.1 58%
Endgame
69.8 23%
Strengths
- · 5584 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 37%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5648, 10002, 6083
77
/ 100 compatProjected
166.5 pts
~0.7 RP (regional)
Teams: 5648, 10002, 6083
Auto
17.9 11%
Teleop
104.3 65%
Endgame
37.2 23%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 37%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.14 · Blue 0.73
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score315.1pts
Blue projected score166.5pts
Red win probability86%
Event bonus sample170alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 37%, blue 41%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 148.6
- Score range
- 146–335
- Upset likelihood
- 14%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
545.7Season APEX302.2
58Auto17.9
173.1Teleop104.3
69.8Endgame37.2
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 60 | 27 |
| teleop | 91 | 77 |
| endgame | 38 | 85 |
| foul | 65 | 15 |
| total | 254 | 204 |
Result
Final score
254 – 204
Prediction correct · off by 49.3 pts
Match videos
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