Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

59.44 – 78.13

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

41 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 11.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 90.2 ±19.1

5876ARTEMIS

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 10.79Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11379TURTLESS

Season APEX 35Event APEX 15.99Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7113Control Rising

Season APEX 30Event APEX 32.66Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 143.2 ±17.3

4788Can't Control

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 20.65Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

6508Hastings Heroes

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 33Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4739Normanhurst Nitro

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 24.48Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5876, 11379, 7113

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.4 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 5876, 11379, 7113

Auto

15.2 37%

Teleop

14.8 36%

Endgame

11.3 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4788, 6508, 4739

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4788, 6508, 4739

Auto

14.7 20%

Teleop

39.2 55%

Endgame

18.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score59.4pts

Blue projected score78.1pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.7
Score range: 39–98
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 115 vs event baseline 109.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

90.2Season APEX143.2

15.2Auto14.7

14.8Teleop39.2

11.3Endgame18

73Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	12
teleop	12	38
endgame	0	9
foul	5	15
total	41	74

Result

Final score

41 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 11.3 pts

Match videos

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