Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

162.1 – 43.23

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

195 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 51.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 477.8 ±16.2

4613Barker Redbacks

A+

Season APEX 294.4Event APEX 15.53Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9191My Chemical Robots

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 15.03Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3132Thunder Down Under

Season APEX 132.5Event APEX 131.54Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 90.2 ±19.1

5876ARTEMIS

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 5.01Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11379TURTLESS

Season APEX 35Event APEX 11.08Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7113Control Rising

Season APEX 30Event APEX 27.14Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4613, 9191, 3132

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.1 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4613, 9191, 3132

Auto

18.3 11%

Teleop

99.9 62%

Endgame

41.8 26%

Strengths

· 3132 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5876, 11379, 7113

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.2 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5876, 11379, 7113

Auto

12.3 36%

Teleop

10.8 32%

Endgame

10.9 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.07 · Blue 0.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score162.1pts

Blue projected score43.2pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 118.9
Score range: 24–181
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 308 vs event baseline 108.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

477.8Season APEX90.2

18.3Auto12.3

99.9Teleop10.8

41.8Endgame10.9

0Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	26
teleop	121	31
endgame	42	16
foul	5	40
total	195	113

Result

Final score

195 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 51.3 pts

Match videos

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