Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

146.3 – 144.56

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

191 – 248

Prediction missed · off by 74.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 402.9 ±15.7

4774The Drop Bears

Season APEX 21.6Event APEX 22.06Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 82

6510Pymble Pride

A+

Season APEX 293Event APEX 68.87Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6996Koalafied

Season APEX 88.3Event APEX 55.37Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 83

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 302.2 ±17.5

5648Melbourne RoboCats 5648

Season APEX 26.3Event APEX 9.92Rank 39Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10002BotBuilders

Season APEX 195.3Event APEX 87.82Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6083Overlooking

Season APEX 80.6Event APEX 46.82Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4774, 6510, 6996

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4774, 6510, 6996

Auto

22.7 16%

Teleop

87.7 62%

Endgame

30.8 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5648, 10002, 6083

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5648, 10002, 6083

Auto

13.1 9%

Teleop

98.4 70%

Endgame

29.3 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score146.3pts

Blue projected score144.6pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.7
Score range: 126–165
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 439 vs event baseline 106.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

402.9Season APEX302.2

22.7Auto13.1

87.7Teleop98.4

30.8Endgame29.3

8Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	37
teleop	75	128
endgame	56	68
foul	15	15
total	191	248

Result

Final score

191 – 248

Prediction missed · off by 74.1 pts

Match videos

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