Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

304.37 – 78.19

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

360 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 545.7 ±15.8

10552Mazenod Machinists

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 27.93Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

5584ICRobotics

Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 186.51Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 80

8613Barker Greybacks

A+

Season APEX 322.1Event APEX 89.93Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 317 ±17.5

9574Rock Bots

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 40.47Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8844Flamethrowers

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 28.81Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5985Project Bucephalus

Season APEX 228.2Event APEX 8.91Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10552, 5584, 8613

/ 100 compat

Projected

304.4 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10552, 5584, 8613

Auto

53.1 18%

Teleop

172.5 60%

Endgame

63.8 22%

Strengths

· 5584 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9574, 8844, 5985

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.2 pts

~0.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9574, 8844, 5985

Auto

17.7 24%

Teleop

44.1 59%

Endgame

13.4 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.3 · Blue 0.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score304.4pts

Blue projected score78.2pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 226.2
Score range: 59–323
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 442 vs event baseline 104.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

545.7Season APEX317

53.1Auto17.7

172.5Teleop44.1

63.8Endgame13.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	27
teleop	179	35
endgame	94	15
foul	10	5
total	360	82

Result

Final score

360 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 pts

Match videos

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