Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

170.42 – 182.06

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

161 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 6.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 477.8 ±16.2

3132Thunder Down Under

Season APEX 132.5Event APEX 134.22Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9191My Chemical Robots

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 17.48Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4613Barker Redbacks

A+

Season APEX 294.4Event APEX 18.72Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 402.9 ±15.7

4774The Drop Bears

Season APEX 21.6Event APEX 33.68Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 82

6510Pymble Pride

A+

Season APEX 293Event APEX 81.79Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6996Koalafied

Season APEX 88.3Event APEX 66.59Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 83

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3132, 9191, 4613

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3132, 9191, 4613

Auto

27.4 17%

Teleop

97.0 59%

Endgame

38.8 24%

Strengths

· 3132 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4774, 6510, 6996

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4774, 6510, 6996

Auto

33.8 20%

Teleop

95.5 56%

Endgame

40.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score170.4pts

Blue projected score182.1pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.6
Score range: 150–202
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 339 vs event baseline 113.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

477.8Season APEX402.9

27.4Auto33.8

97Teleop95.5

38.8Endgame40.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	42
teleop	67	86
endgame	36	35
foul	10	15
total	161	178

Result

Final score

161 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 6.7 pts

Match videos

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