Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

170.22 – 84.66

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

240 – 0

Prediction correct · off by 77.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 402.9 ±15.7

4774The Drop Bears

Season APEX 21.6Event APEX 28.77Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 82

6510Pymble Pride

A+

Season APEX 293Event APEX 78.25Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6996Koalafied

Season APEX 88.3Event APEX 63.2Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 83

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 143.2 ±17.3

4788Can't Control

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 24.79Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

6508Hastings Heroes

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 33.75Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4739Normanhurst Nitro

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 26.12Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4774, 6510, 6996

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.2 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4774, 6510, 6996

Auto

31.8 20%

Teleop

88.7 55%

Endgame

40.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4788, 6508, 4739

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.7 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4788, 6508, 4739

Auto

11.3 16%

Teleop

40.5 56%

Endgame

20.0 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.77 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score170.2pts

Blue projected score84.7pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 85.6
Score range: 65–190
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 240 vs event baseline 113.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

402.9Season APEX143.2

31.8Auto11.3

88.7Teleop40.5

40.5Endgame20

0Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	14
teleop	135	82
endgame	40	12
foul	20	0
total	240	0

Result

Final score

240 – 0

Prediction correct · off by 77.2 pts

Match videos

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