Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
303.6 – 169.78
84%16%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
285 – 170
Prediction correct · off by 9.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 545.7 ±15.8
Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 25.79Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80
Season APEX 322.1Event APEX 91.66Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 186.15Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 80
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 477.8 ±16.2
Season APEX 132.5Event APEX 133.46Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 79
Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 18.25Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79
Season APEX 294.4Event APEX 18.07Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 10552, 8613, 5584
82
/ 100 compatProjected
303.6 pts
~2.1 RP (regional)
Teams: 10552, 8613, 5584
Auto
57.6 21%
Teleop
157.6 57%
Endgame
62.9 23%
Strengths
- · 5584 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 37%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3132, 9191, 4613
80
/ 100 compatProjected
169.8 pts
~0.8 RP (regional)
Teams: 3132, 9191, 4613
Auto
25.5 15%
Teleop
100.8 61%
Endgame
39.4 24%
Strengths
- · 3132 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 37%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.1 · Blue 0.76
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score303.6pts
Blue projected score169.8pts
Red win probability84%
Event bonus sample170alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 37%, blue 40%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 133.8
- Score range
- 150–324
- Upset likelihood
- 16%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
545.7Season APEX477.8
57.6Auto25.5
157.6Teleop100.8
62.9Endgame39.4
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 35 | 38 |
| teleop | 175 | 84 |
| endgame | 25 | 33 |
| foul | 50 | 15 |
| total | 285 | 170 |
Result
Final score
285 – 170
Prediction correct · off by 9.4 pts
Match videos
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