Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

223.99 – 161.69

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

200 – 206

Prediction missed · off by 34.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 356.2 ±16.7

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 103.51Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9147The Joebots

Season APEX 32.1Event APEX 10.64Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

7433Iona Fusion

Season APEX 116Event APEX 109.84Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 402.9 ±15.7

4774The Drop Bears

Season APEX 21.6Event APEX 25.47Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 82

6510Pymble Pride

A+

Season APEX 293Event APEX 75.44Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6996Koalafied

Season APEX 88.3Event APEX 60.78Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 83

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6497, 9147, 7433

/ 100 compat

Projected

224 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6497, 9147, 7433

Auto

55.2 26%

Teleop

112.8 53%

Endgame

43.5 21%

Strengths

· 7433 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4774, 6510, 6996

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.7 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4774, 6510, 6996

Auto

29.3 19%

Teleop

85.6 57%

Endgame

36.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.8 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score224pts

Blue projected score161.7pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 62.3
Score range: 142–244
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 406 vs event baseline 110.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

356.2Season APEX402.9

55.2Auto29.3

112.8Teleop85.6

43.5Endgame36.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	43
teleop	71	101
endgame	46	57
foul	10	5
total	200	206

Result

Final score

200 – 206

Prediction missed · off by 34.2 pts

Match videos

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