Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

78.86 – 84.36

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

30 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 33.3 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 112 ±20.8

7163A.I. Metal Pies

Provisional

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX -5.05Rank 35Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10350Canberra CIPHER

Provisional

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 9.14Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11130Totally Clucked Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 37.5Event APEX 74.77Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 349.3 ±17.5

6510Pymble Pride

A+

Season APEX 293Event APEX -Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10552Mazenod Machinists

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 74.77Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

5331Lightning Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 22.9Event APEX -5.05Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7163, 10350, 11130

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7163, 10350, 11130

Auto

19.1 25%

Teleop

43.5 56%

Endgame

14.7 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6510, 10552, 5331

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6510, 10552, 5331

Auto

22.0 25%

Teleop

47.7 55%

Endgame

17.3 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score78.9pts

Blue projected score84.4pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.5
Score range: 63–100
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 132 vs event baseline 87.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

112Season APEX349.3

19.1Auto17.7

43.5Teleop40.4

14.7Endgame14.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	19
teleop	13	57
endgame	5	26
foul	0	0
total	30	102

Result

Final score

30 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 33.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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