Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

41.35 – 105.92

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

147 – 40

Prediction missed · off by 85.8 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 329.2 ±15.7

4739Normanhurst Nitro

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 6.29Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

10002BotBuilders

Season APEX 195.3Event APEX -Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6996Koalafied

Season APEX 88.3Event APEX 20.57Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 83

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 408 ±16.4

8613Barker Greybacks

A+

Season APEX 322.1Event APEX 70.86Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11379TURTLESS

Season APEX 35Event APEX -Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9191My Chemical Robots

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 20.57Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4739, 10002, 6996

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.3 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4739, 10002, 6996

Auto

10.9 26%

Teleop

21.2 51%

Endgame

9.2 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8613, 11379, 9191

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.9 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8613, 11379, 9191

Auto

23.2 22%

Teleop

59.2 56%

Endgame

23.5 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.98 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score41.3pts

Blue projected score105.9pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -64.6
Score range: 25–122
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 187 vs event baseline 86.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

329.2Season APEX408

6.6Auto18.9

14Teleop52

6.3Endgame20.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	13
teleop	89	13
endgame	22	4
foul	15	10
total	147	40

Result

Final score

147 – 40

Prediction missed · off by 85.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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