Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.37 – 72.62

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

22 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 27.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 298.4 ±18.8

5985Project Bucephalus

Season APEX 228.2Event APEX 11.04Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10342Lost in Translation

Provisional

Season APEX 49.6Event APEX 42.51Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5988Narooma High RoboRebels

Provisional

Season APEX 20.6Event APEX -9.18Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 158.2 ±19.6

10437Amity Robotics Club (ARC)

Provisional

Season APEX 42.6Event APEX 17.41Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11379TURTLESS

Season APEX 35Event APEX 11.09Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6083Overlooking

Season APEX 80.6Event APEX 44.12Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5985, 10342, 5988

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5985, 10342, 5988

Auto

13.1 25%

Teleop

32.1 62%

Endgame

6.7 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10437, 11379, 6083

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10437, 11379, 6083

Auto

11.4 17%

Teleop

39.5 58%

Endgame

17.3 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.06 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score44.4pts

Blue projected score72.6pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.3
Score range: 25–92
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 127 vs event baseline 105.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

298.4Season APEX158.2

13.1Auto11.4

32.1Teleop39.5

6.7Endgame17.3

49Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	4
teleop	3	73
endgame	0	13
foul	0	15
total	22	105

Result

Final score

22 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 27.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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