Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

149.68 – 110.07

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

171 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 34.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 219.4 ±19.1

7433Iona Fusion

Season APEX 116Event APEX 108.98Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10437Amity Robotics Club (ARC)

Provisional

Season APEX 42.6Event APEX 20.03Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4788Can't Control

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 20.67Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 236.3 ±17.3

9147The Joebots

Season APEX 32.1Event APEX 10.2Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6476Supernova Star Squad

Provisional

Season APEX -3.9Event APEX -0.7Rank 42Record 1-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 100.57Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7433, 10437, 4788

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7433, 10437, 4788

Auto

38.1 26%

Teleop

76.1 52%

Endgame

31.4 22%

Strengths

· 7433 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9147, 6476, 6497

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.1 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9147, 6476, 6497

Auto

30.2 32%

Teleop

50.3 53%

Endgame

14.3 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score149.7pts

Blue projected score110.1pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39.6
Score range: 89–171
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 234 vs event baseline 116.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

219.4Season APEX236.3

38.1Auto30.2

76.1Teleop50.3

31.4Endgame14.3

28Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	27
teleop	61	8
endgame	44	13
foul	15	15
total	171	63

Result

Final score

171 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 34.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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