Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

170.21 – 19.61

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

288 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 72.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 259.4 ±18

7163A.I. Metal Pies

Provisional

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 4.12Rank 35Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3132Thunder Down Under

Season APEX 132.5Event APEX 122.49Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 79

6996Koalafied

Season APEX 88.3Event APEX 43.6Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 83

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 50.6 ±20.8

9146Burnouts

Provisional

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 23.09Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9189Disastrous Data

Provisional

Season APEX 16Event APEX 0.44Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6476Supernova Star Squad

Provisional

Season APEX -3.9Event APEX -3.92Rank 42Record 1-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7163, 3132, 6996

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.2 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7163, 3132, 6996

Auto

21.1 13%

Teleop

108.2 65%

Endgame

36.4 22%

Strengths

· 3132 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9146, 9189, 6476

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.6 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9146, 9189, 6476

Auto

11.2 100%

Teleop

-2.4 0%

Endgame

1.4 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.16 · Blue 0.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score170.2pts

Blue projected score19.6pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 150.6
Score range: 1–189
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 334 vs event baseline 104.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

259.4Season APEX50.6

21.1Auto11.2

108.2Teleop-2.4

36.4Endgame1.4

0Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	8
teleop	143	28
endgame	83	10
foul	0	0
total	288	46

Result

Final score

288 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 72.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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