Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

216.51 – 54.88

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

227 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 5.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 605.7 ±15.8

4613Barker Redbacks

A+

Season APEX 294.4Event APEX 16.81Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10002BotBuilders

Season APEX 195.3Event APEX 88.74Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

7433Iona Fusion

Season APEX 116Event APEX 110.96Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 138.9 ±20.8

9433Lil' Timmy's Big Team

Provisional

Season APEX 35.5Event APEX 2.92Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11130Totally Clucked Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 37.5Event APEX 22.81Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7583Embers

Provisional

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 29.15Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4613, 10002, 7433

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.5 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4613, 10002, 7433

Auto

47.0 23%

Teleop

109.9 54%

Endgame

45.9 23%

Strengths

· 7433 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9433, 11130, 7583

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.9 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9433, 11130, 7583

Auto

13.1 22%

Teleop

29.7 50%

Endgame

17.0 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.24 · Blue 0.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score216.5pts

Blue projected score54.9pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 161.6
Score range: 36–236
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 283 vs event baseline 104.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

605.7Season APEX138.9

47Auto13.1

109.9Teleop29.7

45.9Endgame17

13Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	20
teleop	150	19
endgame	39	17
foul	0	0
total	227	56

Result

Final score

227 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 5.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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