Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

77 – 46.04

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 88

Prediction missed · off by 34 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 161.7 ±19.1

9574Rock Bots

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 43.87Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4788Can't Control

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 19.93Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

7128XLR8

Provisional

Season APEX 49.4Event APEX 13.2Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 155.6 ±18.5

6432Valkyries

Provisional

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 10.5Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9191My Chemical Robots

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 13.97Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4739Normanhurst Nitro

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 21.57Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9574, 4788, 7128

/ 100 compat

Projected

77 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9574, 4788, 7128

Auto

14.1 19%

Teleop

36.9 49%

Endgame

24.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6432, 9191, 4739

/ 100 compat

Projected

46 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6432, 9191, 4739

Auto

10.8 26%

Teleop

7.7 19%

Endgame

22.3 55%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score77pts

Blue projected score46pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31
Score range: 27–96
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 139 vs event baseline 104.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

161.7Season APEX155.6

14.1Auto10.8

36.9Teleop7.7

24.2Endgame22.3

0Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	12
teleop	28	46
endgame	10	25
foul	0	5
total	51	88

Result

Final score

51 – 88

Prediction missed · off by 34 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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