Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

210.23 – 170.46

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

288 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 62.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 270.2 ±19.1

10958SWing

Provisional

Season APEX 47.9Event APEX 23Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5584ICRobotics

Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 180.55Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 80

9147The Joebots

Season APEX 32.1Event APEX 6.68Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 651 ±16

10350Canberra CIPHER

Provisional

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 2.77Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8613Barker Greybacks

A+

Season APEX 322.1Event APEX 93.3Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6510Pymble Pride

A+

Season APEX 293Event APEX 74.39Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10958, 5584, 9147

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10958, 5584, 9147

Auto

38.4 20%

Teleop

111.4 59%

Endgame

40.6 21%

Strengths

· 5584 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10350, 8613, 6510

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.5 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10350, 8613, 6510

Auto

40.8 25%

Teleop

104.1 64%

Endgame

17.1 11%

Strengths

· 8613 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score210.2pts

Blue projected score170.5pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39.8
Score range: 151–229
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 411 vs event baseline 103.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

270.2Season APEX651

38.4Auto40.8

111.4Teleop104.1

40.6Endgame17.1

13Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	55
teleop	149	38
endgame	59	0
foul	35	30
total	288	123

Result

Final score

288 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 62.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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